Retiring at 63 and 65 on $120K a year: Not safe

The plan

A married couple - Spouse 1 is 63, Spouse 2 is 65 - plan to retire at the end of 2027. They hold about $1.5M in tax-deferred accounts and $455K in taxable (roughly half of it embedded gains), and want to spend $120K a year. Health insurance runs about $1,100 a month until Medicare begins, modeled as its own line item rather than buried in generic spending.

Their Social Security: about $4,200 a month for Spouse 1 from age 67, and an estimated $1,731 a month for Spouse 2 from 67 - that second figure is derived from a $1,500-at-65 benefit, so treat it as an estimate. Together that's about $5,900 a month from 67, covering more than half the budget.

Over a 30-year projection the plan succeeds in 71.1% of historical scenarios and 66.7% of Monte Carlo runs - below both bars. The verdict: Not safe.

The bar

We call a plan Safe when it succeeds in at least 80% of historical scenarios and 75% of Monte Carlo runs, a portfolio that lasts till age 93.

The results

• At a fixed 5.5% return the portfolio never runs dry — ending at $1,600,834 after 30 years.
• $100,000/yr: 93% historical, 88% Monte Carlo — clears both bars comfortably.
• $110,000/yr: 87% historical, 77% Monte Carlo — clears both bars.
• $120,000/yr — their plan: 71% historical, 67% Monte Carlo — falls below both bars.